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This Week's Trend In Brief:

• Negotiations on a Global Plastics Treaty are underway this week in Geneva, with activists using the global stage to press for sweeping restrictions on plastics, but the true nature of this activist infrastructure may be as obscured as the Swiss Alps on a stormy day.

   

• The talks highlight a broader pattern: seemingly local and indigenous campaigns fronted by community groups are in fact bolstered and steered by well-funded international movements that coordinate efforts to influence policy from the bottom up and top down.

   

• Backed by national and global organizations with billions in funding, these activist networks are arriving in Geneva with legal teams, media strategies, and a pseudo-scientific research pipeline aimed at framing the debate.

   

• For the energy industry, the convergence of activism, diplomacy, and agenda-driven science signals that Geneva is not the endpoint but a staging ground for regulatory and political battles that will follow both at home and abroad.

   

• To avoid being caught off guard, companies must act now to map activist networks, track the reach and impact of activist claims, and anticipate new pressure points before the narratives forged in Geneva shape global policy and regulatory battles.

Digging Deeper:

Negotiations on a United Nations Global Plastics Treaty are underway this week in Geneva, drawing governments, NGOs, and industry stakeholders into the latest round of discussions on plastic pollution and its purported harms. Delegates in Geneva are meeting for the sixth round of negotiations, following last year’s talks in South Korea, which stalled. The debates center on whether to cap plastic production, regulate chemicals of concern, and secure financing for developing countries. The talks face sharp divides, as oil-producing states like Saudi Arabia and Russia push for voluntary measures, while the U.S. delegation seeks to limit the treaty’s scope to downstream issues, such as recycling, waste disposal, and product design. At the same time, activists are using the forum to press for sweeping restrictions on plastics production and use worldwide. For the energy industry, these talks serve as a reminder that activists’ tactics are sophisticated and that the narratives forged in Geneva will quickly permeate domestic policy and regulatory debates.

The Geneva negotiations highlight a broader trend we’ve long tracked – the scaling of seemingly local activism through national and global activist infrastructure to mobilize local groups for international agendas. Much of the current anti-plastics movement, for example, draws from early efforts in a region of Louisiana deemed by local activists as “Cancer Alley,” but those grassroots campaigns are bolstered by a sophisticated ecosystem of funders, legal strategists, and advocacy networks. These groups are attending the plastics treaty negotiations in Geneva as part of a coordinated scientific, academic, and media effort to lend credibility and momentum to their campaigns. As part of a coordinated strategy to influence the talks, their academic allies released a high-profile study linking plastics and their production to a wide range of health harms, providing scientific ammunition to activist groups. That study, along with the groups now leveraging it, makes clear that these are not fringe, isolated actors, but disciplined, proactive coalitions increasingly positioned to shape global treaties and domestic energy policy in tandem.

Backed by national organizations and billions in funding, these activist networks are arriving in Geneva with legal teams, media strategies, and a pseudo-scientific research pipeline aimed at framing the debate. The Beyond Petrochemicals campaign, launched with $85 million from Michael Bloomberg, has funneled unprecedented resources to U.S. activist groups. Now, its director, Heather McTeer Toney, who attended a previous round of plastic treaty negotiations in Kenya, insists the treaty “must move forward, with or without the US.” They are joined by heavyweight organizations like the Center for International Environmental Law and Greenpeace, both equipped with the funding and technical expertise to make academic and legal arguments that smaller groups cannot. To bolster their case, activists are also promoting the new study from allied academics that claims plastics are tied to nearly every modern health crisis. The study has been widely circulated in the media, with activists using the research as a tool to shape public perception and pressure policymakers. Increasingly, these groups are also turning to litigation as another key tool, using veteran legal teams from well-funded national organizations to achieve their policy goals. The convergence of global advocacy, agenda-driven academic narratives, and aggressive litigation strategies makes it essential to anticipate activist moves and prepare responses before these campaigns gain traction.

For industry, the Geneva negotiations highlight how grassroots activism, global diplomacy, and agenda-driven science are combining to create reputational and regulatory risks that extend far beyond Washington and state capitals. The campaign against plastics, which has been fueled by local opposition, has transformed into a global movement that has helped drive the very negotiations unfolding in Geneva. The pressure being applied at this event will set narratives that spread far beyond the United Nations, shaping debates in Congress, state legislatures, and regulatory agencies. At the same time, the talks are a reminder of the breadth of tools environmental advocates now wield, from litigation and lobbying to academic research and global coalition-building, as well as their uncompromising demands to end industry altogether rather than settle for piecemeal restrictions and reductions. Public affairs professionals across the energy industry must anticipate how these narratives will cascade back into domestic debates and prepare strategies to counter escalating activist pressure.

Companies should prepare now by mapping activist networks, tracking the spread of academic and scientific narratives, and anticipating how local movements may gain international traction. Just as importantly, those across the energy industry need proactive messaging strategies that highlight the industry’s role in meeting global needs responsibly, rather than waiting to respond after activists have set the terms of debate. Activists have a playbook – and industry needs one too. Success in this environment will depend on anticipating not just policy outcomes but also the narratives and pressure campaigns that shape them. Those who move early with a clear strategy will be best positioned to defend their operations and reputations as these negotiations advance and the narratives established in Geneva spread worldwide.

Trends in Energy is your weekly look at key trends affecting the energy industry, brought to you by the competitive intelligence experts at Delve. As the political and regulatory landscape continues to shift, reach out to learn how our insights can help you navigate these challenges.