REDEFINING DOMINANCE

This Week's Trend In Brief:

• Trump pledged to return the U.S. to “energy dominance” during his campaign for The White House, and many in the energy industry saw this policy shift as a welcome return to form. But as we noted at the time, “their idea of energy dominance may not match Trump’s as well as they think.”

   

• That contrast is on display this week as Congress crafts “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill” that promises to deliver on Trump’s economic agenda, but includes major cuts to Biden-era funding and incentives for clean energy investments included in the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

   

• While the reconciliation bill may fulfill its promise to jumpstart Trump’s economy, the cuts on the table hit technologies the industry has embraced to stay competitive in an increasingly decarbonizing global market, even as activists on both sides oppose these developments.

   

• As Congress debates the contours of the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” public affairs professionals must recalibrate expectations and prepare a strong defense in a turbulent landscape that pits federal retrenchment against state-level resistance, disrupts clean energy investment, and redefines energy dominance.

Digging Deeper:

In 2024, Donald Trump pledged to return to “energy dominance” should he win back The White House and gave hope to many in the energy sector, but as we noted at the time, “their idea of energy dominance may not match Trump’s as well as they think. Trump’s vision for the energy future at the time appeared to align with the industry’s drive for more robust energy production. While the former president’s focus remains squarely on boosting fossil fuel production and reducing burdensome environmental oversight, much of the energy industry has evolved toward a more pragmatic and diversified approach, one that incorporates renewables, hydrogen, carbon capture, and other technologies to maintain investor confidence and meet shifting market expectations. As the latest developments in Congress have shown, Trump’s approach to energy dominance may conflict with industry’s vision of the same future.

This week, Congress is crafting “The One, Big, Beautiful Bill,” which promises to deliver on Trump’s economic agenda but includes major cuts to funds included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). As part of the deliberations, House Republicans are considering steep cuts to Biden-era climate and clean energy programs, targeting billions in tax credits and funding from the IRA and IIJA. The plan aligns with Trump’s 2026 budget blueprint and would roll back support for wind, solar, and other emissions-reduction efforts while paving the way for expanded oil and gas development on public lands. Environmental groups have quickly rallied against the proposed legislation, calling it a “giveaway for polluters” that “cuts health protections,” while some in the energy industry hope that the bill presents an opportunity to work with Republicans on how to phase out certain incentives “without harming American consumers or businesses.” While these cuts may excite other parts of the energy sector, they threaten to unwind strategies laid across the broader industry, particularly those that depend on long-term incentives for low-carbon innovation.

The reconciliation bill may fulfill its promise to jumpstart Trump’s economy, but the cuts on the table hit technologies the industry has already embraced to stay competitive in an increasingly decarbonizing global market, even as activists on both sides oppose these developments. From carbon capture to renewables, advanced manufacturing, electric vehicle infrastructure, and beyond, many of the targeted programs are now integrated into infrastructure planning and industry expectations. At a time when more energy is needed than ever to power the grid and the burgeoning era of artificial intelligence, these rollbacks do more than just alter the policy landscape, but introduce new risks at a time when long-term certainty is in short supply. At the same time, companies hoping to build these projects face opposition from both sides, further complicating industry’s priorities and investments. On the right, Republicans argue that Biden-era policies supporting clean energy, including solar, wind, and hydrogen, should be scrapped in favor of a return to and expansion of oil and gas. On the left, climate activists continue to advocate for a global phase-out of the traditional while labeling alternatives such as hydrogen and carbon capture “false solutions.” For public affairs professionals, staying aware and attuned to all of these developments will be critical in protecting strategic priorities and enabling their companies to adapt in real-time.

Still, the “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” is yet to be finalized, and companies have a chance to play defense against the proposed rollbacks before they become set in stone. That means working swiftly to protect key incentives, fortify alliances with state and local leaders, and prepare for a high-stakes policy battle that could reshape the energy landscape long before any bill is signed into law. States like California and New York, which had already begun preparing to resist the Trump Administration long before he was elected again, are likely to escalate their climate commitments in response, creating an even more fragmented and politically charged regulatory environment that will be difficult for nationwide operators to navigate. It will be essential for energy companies and the public affairs professionals who represent them to understand who the stakeholders are, anticipate pressure points, and shape the debate before others define the terms of engagement.

As Congress debates the contours of the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” public affairs professionals must recalibrate expectations and prepare a strong defense in a turbulent landscape that pits federal retrenchment against state-level resistance, disrupts clean energy investment, and redefines energy dominance. Companies still have an opportunity to play defense by protecting core incentives, coordinating with allies, and proactively communicating the value of low-carbon innovation to both policymakers and stakeholders. Navigating these complexities demands a strategic approach, one grounded in a deep understanding of the full spectrum of stakeholders. With the right playbook, companies can stay ahead of shifting political currents, anticipate challenges, and minimize disruption. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining what survives, what is lost, and what energy dominance looks like in practice.

Trends in Energy is your weekly look at key trends affecting the energy industry, brought to you by the competitive intelligence experts at Delve. As the political and regulatory landscape continues to shift, reach out to learn how our insights can help you navigate these challenges.

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