Rules of Endangerment

This Week's Trend In Brief:

• The Trump Administration is taking aim at the EPA’s 2009 greenhouse gas endangerment finding – the legal backbone for many federal climate rules – in a move that could unravel much of the past decade’s climate policy.

   

• Activists are not waiting to react. Local groups are already organizing resistance, national players are lining up legal, political, and communications firepower to fight the repeal and counter other rollbacks, and academics and research institutions are fast-tracking studies and reports to fill the gaps left by rollbacks and provide activists with data they can use in courtrooms, statehouses, and the media.

   

• This isn’t just a loose coalition but a highly capable opposition with technical experts, policy strategists, and litigators who can go toe-to-toe with and maintain pressure on industry even as federal rules are pared back and blue states like California and New York step in to bring their own pressure.

   

• For companies, the repeal and the opposition to it raises the likelihood of yet another round of regulatory ping pong, making it harder to anticipate policy direction and plan long-term investments, as companies have to consider the possibility that future court decisions and potential shifts to Democratic control in Washington could lead to reinstating the finding.

   

• Companies must also prepare for activists and other stakeholders to use companies’ own climate and sustainability pledges as they bring pressure to stop companies from taking advantage of lessened EPA scrutiny. To avoid being caught by surprise, companies should ensure they’ve assessed their vulnerabilities and mapped potential state and activist pressure points while monitoring the narrative in real time.

Digging Deeper:

The Trump Administration’s proposal to repeal the greenhouse gas endangerment finding, the legal foundation for much of federal climate policy over the past decade, marks the latest effort to loosen environmental restrictions. The 2009 finding concluded that “planet-warming greenhouse gases pose a threat to public health” and has been central to the government’s authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. While the repeal would remove that authority, reducing certain regulatory obligations for energy facilities, many in the energy industry have long since adapted to the framework and built strategies, projects, and commitments that go beyond federal mandates. For companies, the move creates a complex landscape, with an administration pushing for sweeping rollbacks on one side and a well-organized climate opposition on the other, while investor, community, and operational commitments make the real challenge finding a path between them.

While the proposed repeal may ease federal requirements for U.S. energy operators, it has simultaneously galvanized coordinated resistance nationwide, ensuring that any reduced federal oversight is met with immediate legal and political pushback. Local, state, and national opponents are mobilizing, with communities near petrochemical facilities vowing to continue their resistance even as the Administration pares back environmental justice priorities. National advocacy groups, such as Earthjustice, are rallying supporters to fight for the finding’s survival, warning that its repeal “could dismantle decades of climate progress.” Earthjustice is now organizing turnout for virtual public hearings later this month, and urging supporters to submit public comments on the finding’s EPA docket. However, the group’s real leverage often lies in the courts, and new legal challenges are likely to emerge that could slow or block changes, leaving companies to navigate a regulatory landscape shaped as much by litigation as by federal policy. Even as the rollback prompts energy operators across the U.S. to reassess their strategies, climate activists remain well funded, highly coordinated, and prepared to fight on every front.

Academic and scientific institutions are moving quickly to fill gaps from environmental rollbacks, arming activists with data and credibility to press their case in courts, legislatures, and public debates. The National Academy of Sciences has launched a review of greenhouse gases to create a replacement framework that activists can use in place of the EPA’s endangerment finding. The American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society are planning a “formal call for manuscripts on climate change in the U.S.,” bolstering an initiative to substitute the now-defunded congressionally mandated climate report series. Other scientists and organizations are organizing similar “new and unique climate moves” aimed at filling the gaps left by the rollbacks, such as developing tools to replace discontinued federal research and track and report companies’ supply chain emissions. These groups cannot regulate directly, but they can shape the evidence base and public narrative that drives climate action across all levels, while blue states like California and New York step in to bring their own pressure in response to federal rollbacks. Taken together, this is a highly capable opposition that may not write the rules but can set the terms of the fight by arming activists with the data and credibility to keep industry under pressure on every front.

In Trump’s shadow, this coordinated climate resistance movement is working to position themselves as the source scientific authority, reinforce state and local climate mandates, and maintain pressure on industry until the pendulum can swing back. For energy companies, the repeal and its opposition raise the likelihood of another round of regulatory ping pong, making it harder to anticipate policy direction and plan long-term investments, especially with the prospect that court rulings or a future Democratic administration could reinstate the finding. At the same time, activists and other stakeholders are poised to use companies’ own climate and sustainability pledges as leverage to block efforts to take advantage of looser EPA scrutiny. Drawing on networks that span from local and national activists to academic, scientific, and health groups, the opposition is mounting a full-court press to counter industry and shape the narrative before industry momentum builds. And while the energy sector has its own deep bench of technical experts, seasoned lobbyists, and high-caliber legal teams, climate groups bring equally qualified scientists, policy specialists, and litigators to the table – many with decades of experience and a sophisticated understanding of regulatory frameworks. They are adept at translating complex climate science into compelling legal arguments, crafting data-driven advocacy campaigns, and leveraging technical reports to sway judges, regulators, and public opinion.

Public affairs professionals and the companies they represent must act now – mapping the full spectrum of stakeholders, identifying reputational risks, and tracking the narrative as it unfolds. That means moving quickly to shape the debate around the repeal of the endangerment finding and other rollbacks before this coordinated climate movement can cement its version of events in the public and policymaker mindset. To avoid being caught by surprise, companies should assess their vulnerabilities and map potential state and activist pressure points while maintaining continuous visibility on how the narrative is evolving. Those who fail to anticipate and counter these shifts risk ceding ground in courtrooms, legislatures, and the court of public opinion alike. In a rapidly evolving regulatory landscape, preparation and speed will determine which companies capitalize on the opportunities – and which are left on the defensive.

Trends in Energy is your weekly look at key trends affecting the energy industry, brought to you by the competitive intelligence experts at Delve. As the political and regulatory landscape continues to shift, reach out to learn how our insights can help you navigate these challenges.