Flat-Footed (For Now)

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This Week's Trend In Brief:

• During the Biden years, climate activists had unmatched access in Washington, culminating in the IRA and preparations to defend it. But as a New York Times report revealed, Trump’s rapid rollbacks have outpaced those preparations, leaving the movement flat-footed in what former Sierra Club president Ramon Cruz called “a generational loss.

   

• While many expected activists to use their deep resources to fight against Trump’s energy dominance agenda, The Times reports the “speed and intensity” of the Trump Administration’s policy action has outstripped them – leaving the movement facing a $27 billion clean energy clawback, layoffs rippling through environmental groups, and mounting doubts about the movement’s effectiveness.

   

• With Washington now closed off, activists are pivoting to state and local battles even as some voices urge them to recast their message around costs, jobs, and fairness – pocketbook appeals designed to resonate with voters weary of paying for the energy transition.

   

• But even as some in industry go on the offensive and activists adjust, the climate movement remains well-funded, deeply networked, and determined, requiring companies to stay vigilant for a recalibrated fight in statehouses, courts, and communities nationwide.

Digging Deeper:

During the Biden Administration, climate activists enjoyed unprecedented access to officials and policymakers, using that access to secure major policy and regulatory victories that culminated in the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). At the start of his presidency, Joe Biden drew from the ranks of “green groups, environmental justice advocates and former Democratic administration officials” for his “whole of government” approach to environmental justice. This translated into real political and policy victories for a climate activist movement that learned to effectively leverage its influence. Riding their Biden-era victories, activists fortified themselves for a second Trump term, steeling for an all-out fight across the political and policy landscape. However, as a recent New York Times feature revealed, the Trump Administration far exceeded activist expectations. Now, their Biden-era gains are unraveling. With policy after policy being rolled back, the movement that once claimed unmatched influence in Washington is facing what the Sierra Club’s former president Ramon Cruz told The Times is “a generational loss.”

President Trump has moved more swiftly to cut climate program funding and roll back federal regulations than activists expected, leaving them flat-footed in Washington. Earthjustice President Abigail Dillen told The Times that activists had anticipated Trump “would dial up the pressure” in a second term and readied their lawyers. Indeed, groups across the movement geared up for new legal and policy fights while believing that Biden-era climate rules would be difficult “to dismantle.” But as Dillen conceded, the sheer “speed and intensity” of Trump’s agenda has outpaced expectations, leaving the movement flat-footed and without momentum. Despite pre-election preparations, The Times reported that Biden’s signature IRA is now “in tatters,” while The White House advances oil and gas while hindering renewables. The Trump Administration is also clawing back $27 billion in clean energy grants, which activists warn will devastate ENGOs that form key components of the climate movement. The decarbonization nonprofit Rewiring America for example lost a slated $490 million grant, nearly 800 times its reported 2023 revenue, forcing a 28 percent staff cut. Other major environmental groups have been forced to make staff cuts as well, including the Sierra Club, which also ousted executive director Ben Jealous after a tenure marred by staff clashes and internal turmoil. Once a tightly coordinated force in Washington, the movement now finds itself fractured, weakened, and struggling to maintain momentum.

With Washington closed off, activists are pivoting to state and local fights, while some urge them to frame their efforts in more practical, voter-friendly terms. The Times reported that the NRDC has redoubled its state-level focus, backing solar deployment in Georgia and Ohio and pushing a Vermont law to hold fossil fuel companies liable for climate damages. Others are attempting to reposition their pitch. Billionaire and climate investor Tom Steyer told The Times that the lesson of 2024 is that voters want solutions with “immediate economic effects,” not lawsuits or abstract climate goals. The League of Conservation Voters has taken a similar tack in its new campaign, which aims to sour swing state voters on Trump’s spending bill. The campaign is using “costs and jobs — not climate change — as the central message.” Some groups have closed entirely, like the Bill Gates-backed Breakthrough Energy, which shut down its lobbying shop earlier this year after Gates concluded the money was better spent elsewhere, “with a White House working to thwart climate action.” Although climate activists are grappling with funding shortfalls and lost momentum, the movement is actively recalibrating to preserve its influence and remain effective.

At the same time, industry is no longer on the defensive – and some are even going on offense, pushing back hard against climate groups that have targeted companies for years. In California, Exxon has sued the Sierra Club, other groups, and Attorney General Rob Bonta, disputing claims it ran a “campaign of deception” by promoting advanced recycling. Exxon now alleges Bonta and his allies conspired to “kneecap its business prospects.” The case escalates years of clashes between oil companies and activists over fossil fuels and shows some in industry are no longer willing to sit on the sidelines. The case follows a North Dakota jury’s $670 million award to Energy Transfer in its lawsuit against Greenpeace over its “unlawful and violent scheme” to damage the company during construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline. Even with industry pushing back and recent courtroom victories, climate activists are recalibrating, and industry must be ready for the next phase of opposition.

While energy companies may have less to fear from climate pressures in Washington, the climate movement is recalibrating and ready to spring back if policy direction shifts, meaning companies must remain vigilant and understand the long-term threats activism can pose. Despite the setbacks documented by The Times, the climate movement remains well-funded, deeply networked, and is rapidly rewriting its playbook to stay relevant. Activists are shifting the battle to the states and reframing their message in terms of costs, jobs, and fairness, narratives that resonate with voters weary of paying for the energy transition. That means companies must engage now, not only to track these new narratives, but to anticipate the next wave of pressure before it materializes. Public affairs professionals in the energy industry should be mapping the groups, decoding emerging strategies, and preparing proactive responses to stay two steps ahead of a leaner but no less determined opposition.

Trends in Energy is your weekly look at key trends affecting the energy industry, brought to you by the competitive intelligence experts at Delve. As the political and regulatory landscape continues to shift, reach out to learn how our insights can help you navigate these challenges.