Big Beautiful Bet

This Week's Trend In Brief:

• Last week, more than $90 billion in energy and tech investments were announced at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit, where President Trump and Sen. Dave McCormick applauded momentum for infrastructure tied to AI and power generation.

   

• Much of the funding stems from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a legislative embodiment of Trump’s vision for American “energy dominance,” which scales back clean energy tax credits while expanding incentives for carbon capture and natural gas.

   

• While summit leaders touted bipartisan momentum and regional workforce strengths, environmental advocates and progressive officials denounced the fossil-fuel-heavy agenda, warning of rising emissions, higher electricity costs, and long-term risks tied to powering AI with gas.

   

• Amid that mounting opposition, even historic investment and favorable federal policy offer no guarantees, as uncertainty looms over how long support will last while resistance grows, permitting delays persist, and political winds shift.

   

• For companies hoping to seize the moment, it will take more than announcements and capital. Success will depend on anticipating opposition, engaging early, and building the coalitions needed to overcome the political, legal, and public hurdles that can derail even well-funded projects.

Digging Deeper:

Last week, the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit drew the biggest names in business and politics to announce billions in investments, with President Trump calling it a “triumphant day for the people of the commonwealth and the United States of America.” Alongside energy and tech industry leaders, President Trump and Sen. Dave McCormick announced more than $90 billion in energy and technology commitments, primarily focused on building the infrastructure needed to support AI and power generation. The projects unveiled at the summit ranged from natural gas plants and new data centers to the expansion of nuclear and carbon capture facilities. While some proposals, such as Amazon’s $20 billion data center push in Eastern Pennsylvania, were previously disclosed, the summit gave political heft to the state’s pitch as a national energy and tech hub, with bipartisan cooperation and workforce capacity at the core of its appeal.  

Much of the investment wave revealed at the summit follows the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the budget reconciliation package passed earlier this month. A legislative embodiment of Trump’s vision for American “energy dominance,” the OBBBA slashed or sunset key clean energy credits while expanding and equalizing tax incentives for carbon capture and enhanced oil recovery under the 45Q program. The revisions deliver significant financial advantages to companies investing in new technologies, such as ExxonMobil and Oxy, providing blue hydrogen and CCS developers greater flexibility at a time when competing credits under 45V have been pared back or capped. The OBBBA also preserved credit transferability and exempts carbon capture projects from some of the stricter foreign entity restrictions, broadening access to financing and streamlining development pathways. While renewable advocates have warned the bill will gut more than $6 billion in clean energy projects in Pennsylvania alone, it has energized a new wave of fossil-fuel-aligned infrastructure proposals across the country.

However, while many at the summit celebrated the investment announcements as a catalyst for a statewide energy hub, environmental advocates and progressive officials protested what they called a backward-facing agenda. Activists flooded the streets outside the event, condemning its agenda as a threat to climate progress, public health, and energy affordability. Critics of the announcements claimed that the heavy reliance on gas, coal, and oil risks at locking in decades of carbon emissions just as the power grid faces new pressures from AI, especially as the data centers announced at the summit are expected to require electricity on the scale of entire cities, raising questions about long-term grid reliability and pollution impacts.  While summit speakers touted Pennsylvania’s workforce and bipartisan alignment as strategic advantages, critics argued that Trump’s dismissal of renewables, particularly wind, could undermine the very infrastructure the investments are meant to support. The backlash from activists and officials underscores that despite the summit’s optimistic tone, companies hoping to ride the investment wave should expect fierce and organized opposition, and remember that today’s allies can become tomorrow’s critics as political winds shift. 

Indeed, even for projects that do move forward, there are reasons to temper the optimism, as legal and permitting delays remain a constant, and political winds may shift away from the current tone. Industry leaders, such as Bechtel and ExxonMobil, have warned that investment alone is insufficient without reform, as the PJM grid backlog continues to hinder new generation, particularly renewables. Meanwhile, multi-year wait times for transformers and other equipment are frustrating developers. Community opposition, labor shortages, and unresolved grid access rules further complicate the landscape. CMU researchers noted during the summit that the current barriers are not technical, “but legal, political, and regulatory.” And while Trump may be all in on natural gas and AI infrastructure today, the durability of that agenda remains uncertain, especially in the face of growing local resistance, unpredictable state-level politics, and the likelihood of federal shifts once his administration ends. As we have noted before, companies seeking to capitalize on the investment wave and benefit from a supportive administration must prepare for shifting political currents, a regulatory process shaped not just by federal timelines but by coordinated opposition, and legal challenges that can redefine the path forward at any moment.

For companies hoping to seize this moment, success will not be defined by press releases or panels – it will depend on navigating permitting risk, anticipating political and legal pushback, and building coalitions that can weather shifting sentiment, slow approvals, and uncertain policy horizons. For the energy industry, the summit offers reasons for optimism, including strong bipartisan buy-in, retooled tax policy, and a surge in investment interest. But that optimism should be tempered by the reality that navigating the regulatory and political landscape needed to get projects built remains anything but simple. The race to shape the energy future – whether through AI, carbon capture, or other new technologies – is well underway, but the advantage will not go to the loudest or best-funded players. It will go to those who understand that policy wins are only the opening move, and that building the country’s energy future demands identifying stakeholders, mapping risk early, and executing a well-honed playbook built to stay ahead of delays and disruptions.  

Trends in Energy is your weekly look at key trends affecting the energy industry, brought to you by the competitive intelligence experts at Delve. As the political and regulatory landscape continues to shift, reach out to learn how our insights can help you navigate these challenges.